SA: A matter of time before it explodes

For me it is not like as if both the citizens, and corporate SA are innocent bystanders, as the minority of politicians are plundering the meagre leftovers of both local, and multinational businesses.



The status quo, and the resultant 2020 scenario depicted in this article, is careful planning and collusion by both big business and very skilled politicians, who know exactly what they are doing. Strategists capable of negotiating what is best for each side in the short term, sat at CODESA, and cooked this recipe. On the other hand, equally capable citizens, on one end of the continuum, and shareholders in the various entities, sat, and are still sitting complacently, hoping that 2020, or whatever date in the future, will be none of their business (it will correct itself), as they either will be dead, or are ready to move out of this economy, when it explodes.



By then, they (the wealthy few) will have reaped the resources to the timeline in which they are prepared to be part of SA, and hopefully they will export whatever cash resources they have. The citizens (majority) believe the politicians when they tell them, it will be OK.



I do not believe that there is not enough critical mass amongst the blacks, to lead both Corporate SA, and government towards the ideals expressed in this article.



I believe there is not enough courage (from political leadership) to call the bluff of disinvestment, should the State intervene to the point of shifting the current structural dynamics towards New Capitalism, a la Otto Scharmer (see link below).



http://www.ottoscharmer.com/docs/articles/2010_Oxford_SevenAcupuncturePoints.pdf

Amplify’d from www.leader.co.za

South Africa: Only a matter of time before the bomb explodes

12 FEBRUARY 2011

by Moeletsi Mbeki: Author, political commentator and entrepreneur.

I can predict when SA’s "Tunisia Day" will arrive. Tunisia Day is when the masses rise against the powers that be, as happened recently in Tunisia. The year will be 2020, give or take a couple of years. The year 2020 is when China estimates that its current minerals-intensive industrialisation phase will be concluded.

The former British prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, once commented that whoever thought that the ANC could rule SA was living in Cloud Cuckoo Land. Why was Thatcher right? In the 16 years of ANC rule, all the symptoms of a government out of its depth have grown worse.

Life expectancy has declined from 65 years to 53 years since the ANC came to power; In 2007, SA became a net food importer for the first time in its history; The elimination of agricultural subsidies by the government led to the loss of 600000 farm workers’ jobs and the eviction from the commercial farming sector of about 2,4-million people between 1997 and 2007; and The ANC stopped controlling the borders, leading to a flood of poor people into SA, which has led to conflicts between SA’s poor and foreign African migrants.

What should the ANC have done, or be doing?

A wise government would have persuaded the skilled white and Indian population to devote some of their time — even an hour a week — to train the black and coloured population to raise their skill levels.

But what is wrong with protecting SA’s conglomerates?

The economy has a strong built-in dependence on cheap labour; It has a strong built-in dependence on the exploitation of primary resources; It is strongly unfavourable to the development of skills in our general population; It has a strong bias towards importing technology and economic solutions; and It promotes inequality between citizens by creating a large, marginalised underclass.

What is the state distributing? It is distributing jobs to party faithful and social welfare to the poor. This is a recipe for incompetence and corruption, both of which are endemic in SA. This is what explains the service delivery upheavals that are becoming a normal part of our environment.

So what is the correct road SA should be travelling?

Therefore, if we want to develop SA instead of shuffling pre-existing wealth, we have to create new entrepreneurs, and we need to support existing entrepreneurs to diversify into new economic sectors.

Mbeki is the author of Architects of Poverty: Why African Capitalism Needs Changing. This article forms part of a series on transformation supplied by the Centre for Development and Enterprise. Read more at www.leader.co.za

 

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