My take is that the rich nations are at their games again, and do not seem to be able to shake the 'vested interest' label, which is closely tied to their own short-term economic stability.
They lack the ability to break away with the present, and the poor nations know no better, as they want to have it all: an economic shift, coupled with being paid, along with the oil-rich nation states that seek compensation for reduced dependence on fossil-fuels.
No one cares about what the science is telling us, but they all care about how they can cook the books such that everybody looks good, without responding to the scientific challenge.
I wonder how the 2nd generation, and subsequent ones that follow, will judge us, if at all they will be able to pass that judgement, when humanity is no more...
Cancun Calling: Rorts and all
Giles Parkinson
Don’t pay too much attention to the emission abatement targets coming out of Cancun at the end of the week. They may not mean much.
When Australia's climate change Minister Greg Combet joins the high level round of talks that kick off this week, one of his key briefs will be to play his part in one the biggest negotiating stings since the Kyoto Protocol numbers were agreed to in 1997.
A study by Simon Terry, the executive director of the New Zealand Sustainability Council, goes further. Terry says that by adding in aviation and shipping – which are not accounted for under the Copenhagen Accord – the pledges may turn out to produce an increase in global emissions of 3 per cent from 1990 levels, rather than an advertised fall of up to 18 per cent.
To help achieve this, Australia will not rock the boat over the issue of “hot air”, the estimated 1.3 billion surplus credits created by the huge overestimation of economic growth in Russia, Ukraine and other eastern Europe countries.
Australia – along with New Zealand, Canada, Russia, Norway and several well-treed EU countries – is also at the heart of highly contentious negotiations on land use and forestry in a mechanism called LuLuCF. This seeks to define accounting rules for complex issues such as forest and rangeland management, droughts and bushfires.
This is significant. If retained, it will allow the review to not just take into account the latest science that will roll out from the IPCCC during that time, but also what UNEP describes as “gigatonne gap” – the difference between what the parties have aimed for (2°C) and agreed to do (3-5°C) and the impact of hot air and LuLuCF – heading towards 6°C and 7°C. There is also an agreement to consider aiming for a target below 2°C.
The priority, however, is the need to obtain an agreement to continue meeting – hence the importance of a “positive” Cancun outcome.
Simon Terry says that one of the problems dealing with complex issues such as LuLuCF is that so very few people – and only a handful of negotiators – fully understand them. Forest industry lobbyists – who understand enough to know they can potentially make windfall gains for the industry – are thick on the ground in Cancun.
The CDM now looks like extending to carbon capture and storage, partly as bait to win over the recalcitrant Saudis, who are reluctant to agree to anything that might result in less oil consumption. Oil and gas companies have a particular interest in this, which may explain their strong presence here, as new rules being developed could allow them to claim credits for reinjecting CO2 to assist in the recovery of oil and gas reserves – an activity they already undertake.
It could mean that LNG tankers that return empty from Asian destinations may instead bring back millions of tonnes of CO2 from China and Japan to sequester in depleted gas basins, generating huge credits to the LNG industry. But that may also mean they have less claim for compensation under an Australian carbon price.
Party, party, party
The basic idea is to drink as much tequila as you possibly can, dance, and take the water slide from the back of the main bar, over the dancefloor, past the balcony, and into the lagoon. Then hope that somebody will save you. Some Australian types were set to attack this task with considerable gusto and aim for the 5am closing time, until an advisory came just before midnight from an office-bound flunky that Combet would give them an audience at 10am the next morning. Recovery plans were hastily implemented, but even the water costs $3 a glass.
Saudi Arabia returned to the podium as Fossil of the Day on Friday for complaining about the number of representatives from “civil society”, which it said were a distraction to the talks. “Is there a pressing need to spend time with engaging these people,” its representatives are said to have argued. Saudi Arabia has also been pleading a special needs case, which some countries suspect may lead to claims of compensation if climate change policies result in the consumption of less oil.
The UNFCCC is also wary of the NGOs, and their habit of upping the ante with their protests in the final week of negotiations. So on Friday, the UN declared that NGOs now had to give 48 hours notice of a protest instead of 24. NGOs complained that was hardly conducive to spontaneity and their ability to respond to the issues of the day.
He will not be alone. While then environment minister Robert Hill had the element of surprise when he pulled one of the great negotiating coups by getting avoided land clearing included in Australia’s Kyoto numbers, Combet will enjoy an air of complicity: Other rich nations are looking to employ similar accounting gymnastics – if you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours.
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